How Trump’s Tariffs on Mexico Could Affect Roofing Costs

With the re-election of Donald Trump, and now reality of tariffs on Mexican imports is raising concerns across multiple industries, including roofing. Tariffs can significantly affect the cost and availability of roofing materials, impacting project bids and overall profitability for contractors. This article explains what tariffs are, how they influence the economy, and what these changes mean for today’s roofing professionals.

What Are Tariffs and Who Pays Them?

Definition of Tariffs: Tariffs are taxes levied by a government on imported goods. When a country imposes a tariff on imports, the cost of bringing those goods into the country goes up.
Who Pays the Tariff?: Although tariffs are charged to the importer, the increased cost often trickles down to manufacturers, retailers, and eventually, consumers. In the case of roofing materials from Mexico, distributors or contractors may bear higher costs, which can be passed along to homeowners and insurance carriers in the final bill.

Historical Examples of Tariffs in the US

Below you’ll find expanded discussions on the two key Historical Examples of Tariffs in the US—the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the 2018 Steel and Aluminum Tariffs—with added context specifically related to their potential implications for the roofing industry.

A Look Back at the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930

In the late 1920s, the United States was already struggling with an agricultural slump, which worsened dramatically after the 1929 stock market crash. As unemployment climbed and farms went bankrupt, politicians sought quick fixes to protect American jobs. Enter Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, whose names would become synonymous with one of the most famous tariff measures in U.S. history.

Enacted in 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act raised taxes on more than 20,000 imported goods. Its architects believed that making imports more expensive would encourage Americans to buy domestically produced products, thus revitalizing industries—from agriculture to manufacturing—and stemming job losses. President Herbert Hoover was initially skeptical but ultimately signed the legislation, largely due to political pressure and a desire to provide relief.

Yet what seemed like a straightforward plan to help American businesses soon triggered a global chain reaction. Trading partners such as Canada and France retaliated with tariffs of their own, drastically reducing demand for American goods abroad. This tit-for-tat response sent international trade into a tailspin, prolonging and deepening the Great Depression.

At the time, most common roofing materials—like wooden shingles and clay tiles—were produced domestically, so Smoot-Hawley’s direct impact on roofers might have been limited to more specialized items or tools imported from overseas. However, the sweeping economic downturn caused by these retaliatory measures affected nearly every sector. As construction slowed, roofers found themselves with fewer projects, lower profits, and a workforce stretched thin. Even back then, the roofing industry learned that trade policies can ripple through the economy, changing both the cost and the availability of construction materials.

Modern Ripples: Steel and Aluminum Tariffs (2018)

Fast-forward nearly a century, and the U.S. found itself in another tariff debate—this time involving steel and aluminum. In 2018, President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum, citing national security concerns under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The administration argued that relying too heavily on foreign metals weakened America’s industrial base, threatening jobs and infrastructure.

While the immediate goal was to energize domestic steel and aluminum production, these tariffs led to rising prices for materials crucial to roofing, such as metal panels, flashing, nails, and other fasteners. In theory, higher import costs would encourage American mills to ramp up output. In practice, the sudden imbalance often left contractors with pricier materials and unpredictable supply timelines.

Roofers who specialized in metal roofing systems felt the effects almost immediately. Sheets of standing seam metal roofing, for instance, often incorporate imported metals. When costs shot up, contractors found themselves juggling bids that no longer covered new material prices. Some absorbed the difference to maintain client relationships, while others had to modify quotes—leading to tough conversations with homeowners who hadn’t budgeted for the extra expense.

These tariffs also sparked retaliatory measures from U.S. trading partners, echoing the dynamic seen after Smoot-Hawley. Canada and the European Union imposed counter-tariffs on various American products. While these did not always target construction materials, the overall strain on trade relationships made it more difficult for businesses to plan long-term projects without worrying about sudden price hikes or shipping delays.

Lessons for Today’s Roofing Professionals

Looking at both Smoot-Hawley and the 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs, a few common threads emerge:

Price Volatility
Both examples show how quickly prices can rise when tariffs are imposed. For modern roofing contractors, factoring in potential market fluctuations can help prevent underbidding jobs and protect profits.
Global Interconnectedness
Retaliatory tariffs remind us that few industries operate in a vacuum. Even if roofing materials are produced domestically, the broader economy can still slow down, reducing demand for new construction and repair work.
Negotiation and Supplier Relationships
Building strong connections with multiple suppliers can be invaluable. If one source becomes too expensive or experiences shortages, having alternatives can keep projects on track.
Long-Term vs. Short-Term
Tariffs are often introduced with the expectation that they will lead to increased domestic production. However, setting up or expanding manufacturing facilities takes time and capital. In the interim, contractors may face higher costs, limited supply, and slower turnaround.

The Goal Behind Tariffs

Tariffs typically serve a dual purpose: protecting domestic industries and encouraging policy concessions from trading partners. In principle, by imposing taxes on foreign goods, a government aims to make domestic alternatives more attractive to consumers. When steel or aluminum imports become more expensive due to tariffs, for example, local producers of these metals should, in theory, gain a competitive edge. In addition, tariffs can function as leverage: governments may use them to compel other nations to negotiate fairer trade deals or improve working conditions for their own employees.

However, even the most carefully aimed tariffs have ripple effects. When costs for imported items rise, downstream industries—like roofing—often see their material costs climb in tandem. This can put contractors in a difficult spot. Do they absorb the new expenses or pass them along to customers? Either choice poses risks: absorbing higher prices can erode profits, while raising bids can make a roofer less competitive. Ultimately, whether tariffs succeed in achieving their broader economic goals depends on a wide range of factors, from how quickly domestic manufacturers can scale up to how other countries respond.

Immediate Impact on Roofing Materials

For roofing professionals, the most noticeable effect of new or higher tariffs is usually the immediate change in material costs. Picture a roofer who frequently uses metal panels or aluminum flashing in their projects. If tariffs suddenly add 25% or 10% to the import price of these metals, suppliers are likely to pass those increases on to contractors. This can unfold surprisingly fast:

Supply Chain Shocks: Distributors, unsure of how long tariffs will last or how widespread they’ll become, might stockpile materials early, driving up prices further due to sudden demand.
Delayed or Canceled Orders: Contractors who once relied on just-in-time deliveries might discover certain materials are now on backorder, as suppliers struggle to navigate new costs or sourcing strategies.
Quality vs. Price Tensions: Faced with higher costs, some roofers may be tempted to switch to less expensive materials, even if they’re of slightly lower quality. Balancing affordability and durability becomes a challenge when margins tighten.

In the roofing industry, where even small price shifts can affect bids and client budgets, navigating these changes requires constant communication with suppliers. Keeping an eye on market trends and periodically adjusting quotes based on fluctuating costs can help contractors avoid being blindsided.

Effect on Project Bids and Profitability

An unexpected jump in material prices can dramatically affect a roofer’s bottom line. Most contractors operate on relatively slim profit margins, and an unplanned spike in costs can mean the difference between a profitable job and a loss. Here’s why it matters:

Bidding Accuracy: In a fast-changing tariff environment, the price you quote at the beginning of a project may no longer hold true by the time you place a materials order. This can lead to tough conversations with clients—or worse, financial losses if the roofer is contractually locked into a given price.
Competitive Pressure: If tariffs force you to raise bids to maintain profitability, you might lose out to competitors who either have a larger inventory stockpile or different supplier relationships allowing them to keep prices lower.
Cash Flow Constraints: When materials become more expensive, contractors need more working capital to front costs. For smaller roofing companies, this can strain credit lines or delay payroll, leading to operational stresses that go far beyond material purchases.

Some roofing professionals respond by adding contingency clauses to their contracts—allowing for price adjustments based on significant market changes. While this can protect profit margins, it also requires clear communication with clients who might be wary of variable pricing.

The Onshoring Question: Will Domestic Production Lower Costs?

A central argument in favor of tariffs is that they’ll lead to a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. With imported goods suddenly pricier, U.S. companies might invest in new factories, ramps up existing facilities, and hire more workers. Over time, this could mean a local supply of essential materials—like steel or shingles—available at potentially lower costs.

However, the timeline for onshoring can stretch far into the future. Building or expanding a manufacturing plant involves high initial costs, regulatory approvals, and the challenge of finding a skilled workforce. Even if a plant opens, it may take years before it can operate at a scale large enough to significantly reduce prices. Labor in the United States also tends to be more expensive than in many other countries, which means that domestically produced goods may still carry a higher price tag.

For roofers, the takeaway is to manage expectations. If the promise of domestic production becomes a reality, it could eventually stabilize or even lower costs for certain materials. Yet, in the near term, tariffs often result in price increases, supply chain upheavals, and the ongoing need to watch the market closely for signs of change.

Real-World Examples and Expert Opinions

The roofing sector doesn’t exist in a vacuum—its fortunes are tied to broader economic currents. Several key voices can shed light on how tariffs are shaping today’s market:

National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA)
The NRCA advises its members to be proactive in contract negotiations, highlighting how even modest surcharges can have a ripple effect on project budgets. They also emphasize diversifying supplier relationships to mitigate sudden changes in pricing or availability.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Known for taking a strong stance against protectionist measures, the Chamber argues that while tariffs may provide short-term boosts to certain domestic industries, they often result in retaliatory measures from other countries, which we’re already seeing. This can undermine overall economic growth and hurt sectors—like roofing—that rely on stable supply chains and predictable material costs.
Economists from the American Economic Association
Many economists point out that trade restrictions can slow growth and reduce global competitiveness. They often cite historical precedents (like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act) to illustrate how well-intentioned policies can lead to unintended consequences.
Individual Roofing Contractors
Among contractors themselves, experiences vary widely. Some say that while initial price shocks were unsettling, they’ve adapted by seeking out new suppliers or adjusting project timelines. Others find that a continuous cycle of tariffs and retaliations makes long-term business planning nearly impossible, creating an environment of ongoing uncertainty.

Striking a Balance in Uncertain Times

Tariffs, by design, aim to protect domestic industries, encourage fair trade practices, and sometimes nudge other nations into making concessions. However, as history shows—from the sweeping Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 to the more targeted steel and aluminum tariffs introduced in 2018—these policies can have wide-ranging effects that go well beyond their initial intentions. For roofing professionals, the impact is often felt in the form of volatile material costs, changing project bids, and pressure on profit margins.

At the core of this conversation is the question of whether tariffs will genuinely boost local manufacturing in a way that benefits industries like roofing. While the promise of onshoring might eventually reduce America’s reliance on foreign materials, the transition is neither quick nor guaranteed to lower prices. In the meantime, roofing businesses must adapt. Staying informed about trade developments, forging strong supplier relationships, and carefully managing contract terms can help contractors stay resilient—even when market conditions shift overnight.

Ultimately, every new tariff underscores the interconnectedness of the global marketplace. A decision made in Washington—or across the border in Mexico—can reverberate through the supply chain until it lands squarely on a roofer’s shoulders. By understanding this dynamic, professionals in the roofing industry can navigate the changing landscape with greater confidence, ensuring they’re prepared for whatever trade policies come next.